India started the 5G services with a lot of enthusiasm, hope, and expectation. The path toward the launch was not easy, as it required a lot of preparation in terms of the harvesting palatable spectrum, and auctioning them to the operators. And this wouldn’t have been possible without the active support from the DoT and the regulator. It took the GOI 2 to 3 years of extensive preparation, and the result speaks for itself — 62.7 GHz of airwaves was extracted in the 26 GHz band, 7.26 GHz in the 3.3 GHz, 550 MHz in 700 MHz, and 660 MHz in the 600 MHz, all on a Pan India basis, and all new 5G bands. Never in the past, has such an effort been undertaken to clear the airwaves in a coordinated and planned manner. No doubt the GOI deserves full credit, but unfortunately, this won’t be enough, and to fully leverage the capabilities of 5G more needs to be done. I write this note with the sole purpose of enumerating these follow-up actions which are absolutely critical for making 5G more empowering and useful for the masses.
Limited Coverage
The Coverage of 5G services today is limited and patchy. The reason is — the focus of 5G deployment today is mainly in the 3.5 GHz band. The propagation characteristic of radio waves in this band is much poorer compared to those at the lower frequencies. But 5G needs Ubiquitous coverage, both indoors and outdoors. Why? Else the consumers have to rely on the legacy networks for the continuance of their service. This will dilute the usefulness of 5G networks drastically, as the full value of 5G services will only get unlocked when the user is stationary, indoors at home, or in the office, where data is consumed in large quantum. This limitation is clearly evident from the BTS and tower data published by DoT captured in the chart below.
Note that the growth of towers is following a linear trajectory, compared to that of the Base Stations. This means that hardly any new towers are getting added to overcome the coverage limitation of 5G. In other words, 5G BTSs are being colocated with the legacy 4G BTSs- which operate in low-frequency bands with better propagation characteristics.
This means that 5G coverage will continue to remain patchy and will not penetrate indoors unless more BTSs get deployed to overcome the coverage limitations.
However, RJIO is in a better position with a 2x10 MHz 700 MHz spectrum with a fantastic propagation characteristic. But the band has a challenge on two fronts — a) Being a new band it will take a while for the ecosystem of affordable devices to get enabled.; b) Only 2x10 MHz will not be good enough for driving adequate speeds in alignment with the user's expectation from the 5G service (Note 100 MHz in 3.5 GHz vs only 2x10 MHz in 700 MHz). However, the condition of other players in the market is much worse as they don’t have any 5G spectrum in the low spectrum bands.
The following diagram captures the spectrum framework needed to unlock the full value of 5G networks.
Global Situation
All major operators around the world are preparing themselves to unlock the full value of 5G by enabling a roadmap for adequate spectrum in the Sub GHz bands. This is clearly evident from the following chart.
One can clearly see that most operators around the world have a clear roadmap of 5G spectrum in a specific band in the Sub GHz spectrum.
This means that unless Indian operators also prepare themselves in line with this approach their ability to offer quality 5G services will get severely compromised.
Execution Challenges
The solution is clear and simple to state — Indian operators need a large quantum of spectrum in the low-frequency bands to make the experience of 5G services useful, worthwhile, and empowering. But unfortunately, this is easier said than done. Why? The low-frequency bands in India have many challenges —
1) The spectrum in these bands is priced at par with Gold. At the current rate (last auction price) — 2x10 MHz of spectrum in any of the Sub GHz bands will cost Rs 40 K Cr (5 billion USD). Now, for an operator to be reasonably empowered, he needs to start with at least 2x10 MHz and move towards 2x20 MHz in the short/mid-term.
2) In the subs GHz band, one needs to target only “ONE” specific frequency band for 5G, and not rely on aggregating spectrum across multiple bands for the purpose of capacity enhancements. Doing so will create issues in finding optimally priced devices and infra equipment, thereby increasing cost and diminishing the addressable market.
Overcoming Challenges
In order to figure out an optimal path to overcoming this challenge, one needs to first look at the summary chart which lays out the dynamics of spectrum competitiveness in the Indian market.
Note that only RJIO has a 2x10 MHz spectrum in 700 MHz. Bharti, VI, and BSNL’s spectrum in the subs GHz band is already occupied by 4G services. Hence, they can’t use these bands to deploy 5G without unwinding the existing 4G services which are likely to stay alive for a large period of time in the future.
Hence, Bharti, BSNL, and VI will find it extremely difficult in expanding 5G services indoors and even outdoors in case they do not enhance their BTS density significantly.
Possible Reasons
a) The 700 MHz band is now fully occupied with the GOI having moved the BSNL’s 2x10 MHz 600 MHz allocation into the 700 MHz. With this, only a 2x5 MHz spectrum is available for an operator to take. This is most likely absorbed by RJIO — taking their tally from the existing 2x10 to 2x15 MHz.
b) The 600 MHz band though is lying idle, but it is a new band with virtually no ecosystem of devices. Hence, it will take at least 5 years for a meaningful ecosystem to get developed in this band and therefore is of not much use to the operators at least in the short and mid-term.
c) The 900 MHz band does not have an adequate spectrum for rolling out 5G. Why? It is already heavily used for 4G and legacy GSM. And 5G cannot be deployed hence without finding an optimal place for parking these legacy 4G services.
d) The 800 MHz is currently used for 4G services and does not have sufficient spectrum for enabling a strong roadmap for 5G in the future.
Possible Solution
Whatever solution that we identify must be such that it enables the Indian operators with a roadmap for sufficient spectrum in the sub-GHz band without having to incur a huge cost in terms of outflows and the challenge of developing an ecosystem from scratch. And it is clear from the above discussion that this solution has to be facilitated by the GOI, as it cannot be executed by the operators on their own. The following need to be done for executing this solution.
Move BSNL out of the 900 MHz band into 800 MHz.
Advantage— a) BSNL will get a clear path for deploying 4G services in the 800 MHz which it can’t do in either 900 or 700 MHz immediately. 900 MHz band is currently used for deploying GSM services, and 700 MHz has very little 4G ecosystem now and will be zero in the future, as service providers (worldwide) will start to deploy 5G in this band. Now 800 MHz is a 4G band with at least 2x5 MHz available for assignment to BSNL. And even with that 2x5 MHz will be available for RJIO in case they need it in the future (which will be highly unlikely as they will focus all their energy on expanding 5G services and not 4G.
Advantage— b) As BSNL starts to deploy 4G in the 800 MHz bands, they will be ready to close down their 2G services in 900 MHz (let’s say in the next 2 years) or move them to the 1800 MHz band. This will enable Bharti & VI to get a clear roadmap for acquiring additional spectrum in the 900 MHz to be used for rolling out 5G services. The 5G ecosystem of devices in the 900 MHz band is significantly better compared to 600 MHz. Additionally, both Bharti and VI can share spectrum with each other and use it to park their legacy 4G subscribers in a small block of 2x5 MHz on the side and use the rest of the band for deploying and expanding 5G services. The 900 MHz band without BSNL looks something like this (VI is blue & Bharti is Green, and Pink is Railways).
Summary of Benefits
The proposed solution is a win-win for all. a) It enables BSNL to start 4G services in the 800 MHz by leveraging the already existing ecosystem of devices. This will be beneficial for BSNL, consumers, and the GOI. BSNL will be able to have a large addressable market compared to them deploying 4G services in 700 MHz (800 MHz devices will be more affordable than 4G devices in 700 MHz). Consumers will get the benefit of cheaper 4G services from BSNL. The GOI will benefit from leveraging the 800 MHz lying idle and unused.
Also, BSNL will have an opportunity of deploying 5G services in the 700 MHz. Both RJIO and BSNL can create and leverage the 5G ecosystem of devices in the band and will be much better than each of them going individually.
Bharti and VI will have a clear path for deploying 5G in the 900 MHz. By doing so they also can leverage the benefit of an existing ecosystem of devices than creating it from scratch (as they will have to do in case they decide to deploy 5G in the 600 MHz band).
Consumers will be benefited from increased competition and affordable handest/devices, and increased quality of service.
GOI will be benefited from enabling optimal utilization of natural resources for the benefit of India and its consumers.
Conclusion
India’s aspirations are strongly anchored around a high-quality and affordable 5G network. And we all know that the GOI is focused on achieving this objective, as it wants to leverage 5G for driving technological growth and prosperity. However, the objective can not be fulfilled unless we enable the operators on the ground to be adequately empowered to execute. 5G service without an optimal low-frequency anchor is like a restaurant serving idli without sambhar. Hence, the time is now to act, so that we do not find ourselves incompatible with the objectives that we have set for ourselves, thereby sacrificing a golden opportunity to prepare India for the path of technology leadership.
(Views expressed are my own and do not reflect that of my employer)
PS: Find the list of other relevant articles in the embedded link.
