Numbers never lie, but only if one has the ability to look at them from various angles and depths. However, drilling down into too much detail might risk the loss of the “bigger picture”. Hence, to have the best of both worlds, one must be able to zoom in and out within a dataset, in the same window of visibility. Just like telescopes do when we use them to navigate the heavens. Keeping this in mind, I have developed a tool that enables us with that capability in India’s export-import merchandise dataset. This tool enables us to not only aggregate the data sets into various selected dimensions but to also see the trends at monthly, quarterly and yearly levels all the way back to the year 2009. In this note, I plan to share the snapshots from this tool at various zoom and aggregation levels, thereby enabling the reader to get a full picture of the status of India’s Merchandise Trade of the top principal commodities, and where it is heading.
Section 1— IMPORTS
Imports — Top 15 Countries (monthly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s monthly import trends of the top 15 countries for the last 12 months. All values are in the US $ million.
The key takeaways are:-
a) In the last 12 months (till Nov 21), India imported goods worth $ 556 Billion of which 15% came from China, 7.4% came from UAE, 7.2% came from the USA, and 5.4% came from Switzerland.
b) China’s Nov 21 imports are 52% more than that of Nov 20. For UAE the number is 49.5%, and for the USA it is 35%. This is compared to the overall import growth rate of 56%.
Imports — Top 15 Countries (yearly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s yearly import trends of the top 15 countries for the last 12 years. All values are in the US $ million.
The key takeaway is:- India’s overall imports are now at an all-time high — $ 512 Billion (Data Till Nov21). This trend is true for most of India’s leading trading partners. Also, except Kuwait & Germany, the list of countries is the same in both the tables. Germany got dropped from the monthly list and is replaced by Kuwait.
Imports — Top 15 Principal Commodities (monthly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s monthly import trends of the top 15 principal commodities for the last 12 months. All values are in the US $ million.
The key takeaways are:-
a) In the last 12 months (till Nov 21), of the total imported goods worth $ 556 Billion, 24.4% is Petroleum, 11% is Electronics, 10% is Gold, and 6% is Machinery except Electronics.
b) Petroleum Nov 21 imports are 132% more than that of Nov 20. For Electronics the number is 21%, and for Gold, it is 40%.
(Note — PCom denoting Null include those items which could not be mapped against any principal commodity)
Imports — Top 15 Principal Commodities (yearly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s yearly import trends of the top 15 principal commodities for the last 12 years. All values are in the US $ million.
Key takeaways:- For most of the Principal Commodities, the values have seen undulation over the years, but for a few like Electronics, Coal, Chemicals have seen a steady increase.
Imports — Top 15 Items (monthly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s monthly import trends of the top 15 items at the 8digit HSCode level for the last 12 months. All values are in the US $ million.
Key takeaways:- It is worthwhile to note that of the top 15 items most are linked to either the energy sector or precious metals or stones, and only two (84713010 & 85177090) belong to the principal commodity of Electronics.
Imports — Top 15 Items (yearly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s yearly import trends of the top 15 items at the 8digit HSCode level for the last 12 years. All values are in the US $ million.
Key takeaways:- See the exponential rising trends on imports on PC hardware and ICs. The Imports values on Crude has fallen due to pricing having mellowed down in the international market.
Imports — Petroleum Country-Wise (monthly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s monthly import trends of the principal commodity Petroleum for the last 12 months. All values are in the US $ million.
Key takeaways:- Iraq, Saudi Arabia, UAE & US contributes to 56% of the total imports.
Imports — Petroleum Country-Wise (yearly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s yearly import trends of the principal commodity Petroleum for the last 12 years sorted by the latest year (2021). All values are in the US $ million.
The following is the snapshot of India’s yearly import trends of the principal commodity Petroleum for the last 12 years sorted by the previous year (2019). All values are in the US $ million.
Comparing the above two tables one can see how the import trends on Petroleum have changed over the years between various countries. The key point to note is the fall of Iran from the import list since 2019.
Imports — Petroleum Item-Wise Breakup (monthly)
The following is the snapshot of the item-wise breakup of India’s monthly import trends of the principal commodity Petroleum for the last 12 months. All values are in the US $ million.
Imports — Electronics Country-Wise (monthly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s monthly import trends of the principal commodity Electronics for the last 12 months. All values are in the US $ million.
Key Takeaway:- Imports from China alone contribute to 50% of the overall imports.
Imports — Electronics Country-Wise (yearly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s yearly import trends of the principal commodity Electronics for the last 12 years. All values are in the US $ million.
Key Takeaways:- Import from China is already touching an all-time high in the CY 2021, this is in the background of all kinds of incentives the GOI has announced in order to promote local manufacturing. Even imports from HGK and Singapore have increased exponentially.
Imports — Electronics Item-Wise Breakup (monthly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s monthly import trends of the principal commodity Electronics for the last 12 months. All values are in the US $ million.
Key Takeaways:- The import on Solar Cells has reached a level which is at par with PC and Telephone Parts. Imports on PCs and Laptops have been steadily rising. Also, overall imports are seen at a rising trend in spite of a lot of government incentives like PLI (Production linked incentives).
Imports — Electronics Item-Wise Breakup (yearly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s yearly import trends of the principal commodity Electronics for the last 12 years. All values are in the US $ million.
Key Takeaways:- Imports on Monolithic ICs are at the top — surpassing the big-ticket items like telephone parts and PCs and Laptops. Also, this year the overall imports (even with one month left) have hit an all-time high.
Imports — Gold Country-Wise (monthly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s monthly import trends of the principal commodity Gold for the last 12 months. All values are in the US $ million.
Key Takeaways:- In the last 12 months India has imported gold worth 28 billion USD from Switzerland (50% of the overall imports)
Imports — Gold Country-Wise (yearly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s yearly import trends of the principal commodity Gold for the last 12 years. All values are in the US $ million.
Key Takeaways:- In the last CY, imports of Gold are touching levels what India saw in CY 2011 and 2012. One can note that imports of Gold are almost at Par with that of Electronics (51 vs 56 billion USD).
Section 2— EXPORTS
Exports— Top 15 Countries (monthly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s monthly export trends of the top 15 countries for the last 12 months. All values are in the US $ million.
The key takeaways are:-
a) In the last 12 months (till Nov 21), India exported goods worth $ 381 Billion of which 18% went to the US, 6% went to China, 3.6% went to Bangladesh.
b) Overall exports have grown on Nov 21 by 34.6% compared to 56% on imports in the same duration. This is resulting in the widening of the trade deficit.
Exports — Top 15 Countries (yearly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s yearly export trends of the top 15 countries for the last 12 years. All values are in the US $ million.
Key Takeaways:- Though Indian exports have increased over the years, the imports have increased at a much higher rate- resulting in an increased trade deficit.
Exports — Top 15 Principal Commodities (monthly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s monthly Export trends of the top 15 principal commodities for the last 12 months. All values are in the US $ million.
Key Takeaways:- In the last 12 months from Nov 21, India exported goods worth 383 billion USD, of which top four categories a) Petroleum & Crude Products constitute 13%; b) Gems & Jewelry constitutes 10%;c) Mach & Instruments constitutes 8%; d) Drugs & Pharma constitutes 6.5%.
Exports of Electronics good constitutes only 3.5% vs 11% on total imports.
Exports — Top 15 Principal Commodities (yearly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s yearly Export trends of the top 15 principal commodities for the last 12 years. All values are in the US $ million.
Key Takeaways:- In some sectors, India’s exports have shown a rising trend. These are Pharma, Inorganic/organic/agrochemicals & Dyes Coar Tar Chemicals. Exports on electronics though have increased it has made up the lost ground of 2011.
Exports — Top 15 Items (monthly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s monthly export trends of the top 15 items at the 8digit HSCode level for the last 12 months. All values are in the US $ million.
Key Takeaways:- In the last 12 months, exports of mobile phones (85171211) are equal to that of Vannamei Shrimp (03061720) @ $ 4.4 billion. Export of diamonds tops the list.
Exports — Top 15 Items (yearly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s yearly export trends of the top 15 items at the 8digit HSCode level for the last 12 months. All values are in the US $ million.
Key Takeaways:- Some new HSCodes have been introduced and therefore you see white spaces in some of the rows
Exports — Petroleum Country-Wise (monthly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s monthly exports trends of the principal commodity Petroleum Products for the last 12 months. All values are in the US $ million.
Key Takeaways:- The exports of this product are increasing steadily and the Netherlands, USA, and Australia are our top 3, export partners.
Exports — Petroleum Country-Wise (yearly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s yearly exports trends of the principal commodity Petroleum Products for the last 12 months. All values are in the US $ million.
Key Takeaways:- Zooming out at the yearly level tells us how exports which were looking rising at the monthly level is seen struggling at the yearly level, and also how some of the preferred trading partners like Singapore have fallen in the list of the monthly level.
Exports — Petroleum Item-Wise Breakup (monthly)
The following is the snapshot of the item-wise breakup of India’s monthly exports trends of the principal commodity Petroleum for the last 12 months. All values are in the US $ million.
Key Takeaways:- Refined Diesel auto fuel, followed by Gasoline tops the list.
Exports — Gems & Jewellery Country-Wise (monthly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s monthly exports trends of the principal commodity Gems & Jewellery for the last 12 months. All values are in the US $ million.
Key Takeaways:- There is a sudden drop in exports of Gems & J in the last month. This is after a continuously rising trend. One needs to check the reasons.
Exports — Gems & Jewellery Country-Wise (yearly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s yearly exports trends of the principal commodity Gems & Jewellery for the last 12 months. All values are in the US $ million.
Key Takeaways:- Though the exports to the US have been an increasing trend, the overall exports of this item have seen a falling trend.
Exports — Gems & Jewellery Item-Wise Breakup (monthly)
The following is the snapshot of the item-wise breakup of India’s monthly exports trends of the principal commodity Gems & Jewellery for the last 12 months. All values are in the US $ million.
Key Takeaways:- Is self-explanatory
Exports — Gems & Jewellery Item-Wise Breakup (yearly)
The following is the snapshot of the item-wise breakup of India’s yearly exports trends of the principal commodity Gems & Jewellery for the last 12 years. All values are in the US $ million.
Key Takeaways:- Is self-explanatory
Exports — Machinery & Ins Country-Wise (monthly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s monthly exports trends of the principal commodity Machinery & Ins for the last 12 months. All values are in the US $ million.
Key Takeaways:- Last month exports have fallen suddenly.
Exports — Machinery & Ins Country-Wise (yearly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s yearly exports trends of the principal commodity Machinery & Ins for the last 12 years. All values are in the US $ million.
Key Takeaways:- Country-wise exports on a year by year basis is showing a rising trend.
Exports — Machinery & Ins Item-Wise Breakup (monthly)
The following is the snapshot of the item-wise breakup of India’s monthly exports trends of the principal commodity Machinery & Ins for the last 12 months. All values are in the US $ million.
Exports — Machinery & Ins Item-Wise Breakup (yearly)
The following is the snapshot of the item-wise breakup of India’s yearly exports trends of the principal commodity Machinery & Ins for the last 12 years. All values are in the US $ million.
Exports — Drugs & Pharma Country-Wise (monthly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s monthly exports trends of the principal commodity Drugs & Pharma for the last 12 months. All values are in the US $ million.
Exports — Drugs & Pharma Country-Wise (yearly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s yearly exports trends of the principal commodity Drugs & Pharma for the last 12 years. All values are in the US $ million.
Key Takeaways:- Exports on a yearly basis is seeing a rising trend
Exports — Drugs & Pharma Item-Wise Breakup (monthly)
The following is the snapshot of the item-wise breakup of India’s monthly exports trends of the principal commodity Drugs & Pharma for the last 12 months. All values are in the US $ million.
Exports — Drugs & Pharma Item-Wise Breakup (yearly)
The following is the snapshot of the item-wise breakup of India’s yearly exports trends of the principal commodity Drugs & Pharma for the last 12 years. All values are in the US $ million.
Exports — Transport Equip Country-Wise (monthly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s monthly exports trends of the principal commodity Transport Equip for the last 12 months. All values are in the US $ million.
Key Takeaways:- This item is seeing a decreasing trend.
Exports — Transport Equip Country-Wise (yearly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s yearly exports trends of the principal commodity Transport Equip for the last 12 months. All values are in the US $ million.
Exports — Transport Equip Item-Wise Breakup (monthly)
The following is the snapshot of the item-wise breakup of India’s monthly exports trends of the principal commodity Transport Equip for the last 12 months. All values are in the US $ million.
Exports — Transport Equip Item-Wise Breakup (yearly)
The following is the snapshot of the item-wise breakup of India’s yearly exports trends of the principal commodity Transport Equip for the last 12 years. All values are in the US $ million.
Exports — Electronics Country-Wise (monthly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s monthly exports trends of the principal commodity Electronics for the last 12 months. All values are in the US $ million.
Exports — Electronics Country-Wise (yearly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s yearly exports trends of the principal commodity Electronics for the last 12 years. All values are in the US $ million.
Exports — Electronic Item-Wise Breakup (monthly)
The following is the snapshot of the item-wise breakup of India’s monthly exports trends of the principal commodity Electronic for the last 12 months. All values are in the US $ million.
Exports — Electronic Item-Wise Breakup (yearly)
The following is the snapshot of the item-wise breakup of India’s yearly exports trends of the principal commodity Electronic for the last 12 years. All values are in the US $ million.
Section 3— DEFICITS
Deficits— Top 15 Countries (monthly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s monthly deficit trends of the top 15 countries for the last 12 months. All values are in the US $ million.
Deficits — Top 15 Countries (yearly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s yearly deficit trends of the top 15 countries for the last 12 years. All values are in the US $ million.
% Deficits — Top 15 Countries (monthly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s monthly % deficit trends of the top 15 countries for the last 12 months.
% Deficits — Top 15 Countries (yearly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s yearly % deficit trends of the top 15 countries for the last 12 years.
Deficits — Top 15 Chapters (monthly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s monthly deficit trends of the top 15 Chapters for the last 12 months. All values are in the US $ million.
Deficits — Top 15 Chapters (yearly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s yearly deficit trends of the top 15 Chapters for the last 12 years. All values are in the US $ million.
% Deficits — Top 15 Chapters (monthly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s monthly % deficit trends of the top 15 Chapters for the last 12 months. All values are in the US $ million.
% Deficits — Top 15 Chapters (yearly)
The following is the snapshot of India’s yearly % deficit trends of the top 15 Chapters for the last 12 years. All values are in the US $ million.
Key Takeaways — Indian trade deficit is seen rising when viewing at the monthly level, especially the deficit with China is seen at rising trends. Though the exports have increased so are the imports — pushing deficits to a much higher level than it was before.
